Do I have a chance at winning this small claims lawsuit?

I was driving through a construction zone on a local freeway here in California. I was exiting the freeway and had a closure on right (with traffic cones and workers) and a vehicle on my left - I was also being tailgated by another vehicle. The car in front of me swerved (he/she didnt have a car to their left) abruptly to the left to avoid an errant traffic cone standing smack dab in the middle of the road. I had no way to avoid hitting the cone, and couldnt slow to avoid it because of the tailgater behind me. I subsequently hit the cone, (to make a long story short) it caused $1,849.43 (per bodyshop estimates) I have pictures of the area after it happened i stopped and looked at the damage and the traffic cone i hit had the construction companys name stenciled on it. i filed a police report with the Highway Patrol, and was told to file a claim against the company and they denied the claim and said that it wasnt their fault. I have already filed a small claims lawsuit against the company, what are my odds of me winning the lawsuit?